Vague Specifics – September 2020
Well, we survived another blazing Dallas summer. Is it me, or did the quasi-fall weather come a little early this year? I’m not complaining, I’m not going to miss 117 heat indexes, it’s just a bit odd. Normally we have to wait until around Halloween to experience some genuinely cool mornings. I harken back to my college days, when I donned a Halloween kilt just in time for 40 degree weather… it certainly kept me invigorated.
As of today (Tuesday, September 22nd), the market has definitely calmed down a bit. Sales in September will prove to be very strong because so much is still in title, but I’m thinking October we’ll see a bit of a seasonal cool-down. The election is in November (in case you’ve been hiding in a cave on Mars with your eyes closed and fingers in your ears), and the economy always holds its breath for a couple of months. Uncertainty is worse for markets than whether or not the red or blue M&M wins. Speaking of elections, I would hope that December and January would see a subsidence of the hyper-partisanship that has fallen on the United States, but I can’t remember a time when that was the case. As long as media and social media persist as they do (and I’m not picking sides here), I don’t see it changing anytime soon.
After an extended period of non-vacationing (which is the kiss of death to my travel-loving wife), Kacie and I are headed to Montana for a week. in early September. I have to admit the thought of being with a bunch of strangers in a thin metal tube never worried me before Covid. Even when we went to Whistler in mid-February, the exposure to strangers didn’t worry me. But people are still flying every day. If you’re curious, take a look on AA.com. The price for planet tickets these days is unbelievable, and the travel ban has made us look inside America’s borders. It’s really amazing just how vast the United States is and how much there is to see.
Will The 2020 Surge Continue?
What started out looking like another banner year following the first quarter was suddenly crashed thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Since then, the recovery has been nothing shy or remarkable. See the graph below, courtesy of Fair Texas Title:
As of September, sales for single-family homes have outpaced 2019 by 4% but still lingers slightly behind condo sales. The question is: will it last?
Working for us is the incredibly low listing inventory we continue to experience has caused buyers who would normally have purchased to continue to hold out for the right house. Interest rates remain at historic lows.
Working against us is the continued Covid lockdown, what is typically a 3rd quarter slowdown, and of course the election. Election seasons always see a slower market because uncertainty is the worst thing any market can experience.
Will it continue? I believe so. Chances are we’ll see numbers settle down a bit as to mimic 2019 a bit more, but barring Covid-20 or Giant Meteor the good times should continue to roll.
MLS Statistics – September 2020
Architectural Corner – The Igloo
Igloos can be attributed to the Innuit, native to the arctic regions of Canada, Greenland (remember, not green), and even the United States. The Innuit are commonly referred to as Eskimos.
Igloos were primarily constructed of ice but also employed whale bone. With temperatures in the region dropping as low as -49, Igloos were surprisingly efficient at utilizing body heat alone for warmth and could range from 19-61 degrees on the inside!
Igloos are different in construction from geodesic domes in that their components are built in an ascending upward spiral pattern, and if built properly can support the weight of a full-grown man. Unfortunately, they only offer limited protection from Polar Bears.
Vague Specifics – August 2020
July was an amazing month for real estate, August is looking to be even better. We’ve about made-up in sales volume for the COVID-dip, and every indicator says August is going to be a banner month. Unless the election has more of an effect on the market compared to other election years (and the effect is noticeable), 2020 will actually have a higher sales volume than 2019. Despite millions of people out of work, low interest rates and mass migration to DFW have helped us beat the odds.
While it’s a hot market, it’s possibly the most emotional real estate market in history. It’s absolutely maddening. I don’t blame people… between COVID, the heat, low inventory and the politically charged climate of an election year, it’s no wonder everyone is on edge. In previous years I wouldn’t have put much credence in back-up offers, but we’ve seen many contracts fall through in 2020 and many of them are due to buyers and sellers having personal issues with one another. We’re earning our money as Realtors, and in all honesty, this is exactly what the market needs to thin the herd of flippant agents.
I think I’ve mentioned before that I’ve picked up disc golf again after a 20-year hiatus (thanks to my great friend, Chad Lasseter, for helping me rediscover it). Frankly, it’s been a Godsend. It’s a great excuse to get outside and soak up some sun, allows you to be as serious/casual as you like, and is both less expensive and less physically strenuous on the body as regular golf. I never realized just how indoors-oriented I’d become until I started spending several hours outside at a time, and it’s really nice to actually be adapted to the summer heat. Don’t get me wrong, a 107 degree heat index is a sweaty experience, it’s nowhere nearly as oppressive as it has been in previous years. For anyone interested, there are dozens of courses around the Metroplex, and it’s just a fun, laid-back time. Anyone feel like throwing the disc some weekend, just let me know!
Architectural Corner – Oriental
As a nation of settlers, our immigrants have bought with the the influences of their homelands, and those from the Orient are no different.
Asian architecture – and there are many variations based on region/country – is typically wood-framed, characterized by graceful and distinctively shaped, multi-level roofs that curve upwards at the corners. Entryways almost always face south. Structures are symmetrical in layout, they may be round, square, even octagonal in shape.
Often meticulously decorated with culturally significant carvings, of animals and mythological figures, they symbolize more than just a dwelling, but a tribute to history. Red roof channel fortune, green harmony, yellow royalty. They are often surrounded by graceful gardens.
MLS Statistics – August 2020
Vague Specifics – July 2020
What a wacky year it’s been (insert your favorite expletive for “wacky” if you like). Despite a non-existent April-May, aggregate sales in 2020 trails 2019 by only 2% for single-family homes, and 10% for condos and townhomes. If you read this newsletter, and I’m sure it’s the primary focus of your life – a veritable north star the dark night of COVID – you’ll know just how terrible sales were for two of what should have been top sales months. Again, I have no idea how the year is going to turn out, there are conflicting forces at play. Working against a strong 2020 are COVID and it’s a presidential election year. Working for the market are tens of thousands of people flooding into D/FW in search of jobs, prosperity and a 110 degree heat index.
Inventory is still critically low in the DFW area. Builders around the periphery simply can’t put up enough product to keep up with demand. It’s amazing that parts of the Metroplex that were once rightfully considered the middle-of-nowhere are now bustling population microcosms. I mean, there isn’t a tree over 7′ tall in these areas, but by the year 2070, they will be MAJESTIC.
I try to keep my comments as macro as possible, but for the most part, the majority of my work is in East Dallas and Lake Highlands, both of which have been particularly resurgent in the last couple of months. Sales volume has risen 38% and 62%, respectively. What areas are suffering? Park Cities and Oak Lawn. Luxury homes over $1,000,000 – particularly $2,000,000 – are simply not selling these days. And the condos and townhomes that compose the majority of Oak Lawn are also lagging.
Architectural Corner – Dutch Colonial Architecture
As was typical of all New World settlers, Dutch settlers in New York, New Jersey, Delaware & western Connecticut brought their familiar architecture with them.
The Dutch Colonial homes were characterized by gambrel roofs with curved eaves, double-hung sash windows, and outward swinging wood shutters, these charming homes were originally designed with only one room (open concept before it was a thing).
Besides what was just mentioned, Dutch Colonials varied wildly in form. During the late 1800’s they had a very Victorian flare, while after 1900 their design contained more classical elements.
We see this style in D/FW from time-to-time. In fact, the very first home I ever held open was Dutch Colonial. It was on Reiger in Old East Dallas. Sweet memories…
