Vague Specifics – February 2022
For the first time in a couple of years, the economic forecast is showing genuinely troubling signs. We have long been due for a Wall Street adjustment; the inevitable adjustment has been propped up for quite a few years by deficit spending and cheap money. With inflation rising, the Fed has had to raise rates pretty dramatically, leading to a full-point spike in interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage. In context, that puts rates right around 4%, which is still obscenely low. I remember when I was a kid, auto dealerships offered 19.9% financing. A $400k house on a 30-year note at 4% is roughly $1,800/mo (minus taxes and insurance). On 20% it’s more like $5,600. Yeesh.
“But John, you omniscient seer,” I hear you ask, “is the DFW market faced with a correction?”. Well, dear reader, no, Unless the laws of supply-and-demand economics are turned upside down. Tens of thousands of refugees from California continue to wash up on our fertile shores, with nary the clothes on their backs and $4,000,000 in their bank accounts after selling their shanties in Malibu. We’re also seeing an incredibly high number of first-generation Americans enter the metroplex. I had 30 offers on a listing just outside Allen, 27 of them were from either Indian, Asian or Persian-Americans. I heard a great many stories about parents wanting to buy a piece of property for their children, I wish I could have sold all of them acreage.
As of my writing this, I’m staring out the window at a frozen wasteland. Temperatures stand at 25 degrees, traffic is at a minimum. God, I miss the days of minimal traffic. If there’s one thing that really frustrates me about Dallas’ growth, it’s the traffic. It’s high-time we hit the age of flying cars.
Architectural Corner – Split-Level Ranch
It all started when the Earth cooled and things called “hills” formed. I know in our topographically-challenged city that’s an alien concept, but please bear with me.
Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright (like so many other styles), the split-level ranch is a staggered-level home, typically featuring the large living, dining & kitchen combo on the middle level; sleeping rooms tend to be on the third floor (occasionally the first), with a garage and/or basement on the first. A short set of central stairs connects all levels.
Advantages to this style include reasonable access to the foundation, plumbing and floor ducts and the ability to actually build a wide house on a hill, unfortunately they tend to be difficult to navigate for less mobile people.
You don’t see many of these homes in Dallas, but in neighborhoods with significant hills they tend to appear in clusters.
Architectural Corner – The Igloo
Igloos can be attributed to the Innuit, native to the arctic regions of Canada, Greenland (remember, not green), and even the United States. The Innuit are commonly referred to as Eskimos.
Igloos were primarily constructed of ice but also employed whale bone. With temperatures in the region dropping as low as -49, Igloos were surprisingly efficient at utilizing body heat alone for warmth and could range from 19-61 degrees on the inside!
Igloos are different in construction from geodesic domes in that their components are built in an ascending upward spiral pattern, and if built properly can support the weight of a full-grown man. Unfortunately, they only offer limited protection from Polar Bears.
MLS Statistics – August 2020
Vague Specifics – July 2020
What a wacky year it’s been (insert your favorite expletive for “wacky” if you like). Despite a non-existent April-May, aggregate sales in 2020 trails 2019 by only 2% for single-family homes, and 10% for condos and townhomes. If you read this newsletter, and I’m sure it’s the primary focus of your life – a veritable north star the dark night of COVID – you’ll know just how terrible sales were for two of what should have been top sales months. Again, I have no idea how the year is going to turn out, there are conflicting forces at play. Working against a strong 2020 are COVID and it’s a presidential election year. Working for the market are tens of thousands of people flooding into D/FW in search of jobs, prosperity and a 110 degree heat index.
Inventory is still critically low in the DFW area. Builders around the periphery simply can’t put up enough product to keep up with demand. It’s amazing that parts of the Metroplex that were once rightfully considered the middle-of-nowhere are now bustling population microcosms. I mean, there isn’t a tree over 7′ tall in these areas, but by the year 2070, they will be MAJESTIC.
I try to keep my comments as macro as possible, but for the most part, the majority of my work is in East Dallas and Lake Highlands, both of which have been particularly resurgent in the last couple of months. Sales volume has risen 38% and 62%, respectively. What areas are suffering? Park Cities and Oak Lawn. Luxury homes over $1,000,000 – particularly $2,000,000 – are simply not selling these days. And the condos and townhomes that compose the majority of Oak Lawn are also lagging.
Architectural Corner – Dutch Colonial Architecture
As was typical of all New World settlers, Dutch settlers in New York, New Jersey, Delaware & western Connecticut brought their familiar architecture with them.
The Dutch Colonial homes were characterized by gambrel roofs with curved eaves, double-hung sash windows, and outward swinging wood shutters, these charming homes were originally designed with only one room (open concept before it was a thing).
Besides what was just mentioned, Dutch Colonials varied wildly in form. During the late 1800’s they had a very Victorian flare, while after 1900 their design contained more classical elements.
We see this style in D/FW from time-to-time. In fact, the very first home I ever held open was Dutch Colonial. It was on Reiger in Old East Dallas. Sweet memories…
Surviving High Humidity
It didn’t used to be this way in Dallas. We’ve always had hot summers, but nothing like the kind of humidity we’ve had to endure these last few years. Texas has the 6th highest humidity in America (There’s a reason I never considered living in Houston).
Humidity presents a challenge because it negates our body’s natural ability to cool through sweating. When we sweat, evaporating perspiration actually transfers heat from our bodies to the droplets. This also increases our perception of temperature (measured by the heat index).
“But John, you brilliant, yet oddly quirky tome of useless knowledge,” I hear you ask, “how do I take precaution not to fall victim to heat exhaustion?” Well, dear reader, allow me to help.
Proper Ventilation – Be it outdoors or indoors, a nice fan or cross-breeze is a life saver. One of the articles I read suggests you keep your windows open to facilitate the breeze, but these days, that sounds like the dumbest idea on Earth.
Drink Cold Water – In addition to keeping you hydrated – something we can’t get enough of during the summer – ice-cold water cools you from the outside in.
Wear Loose-Fitting Clothes… or Don’t – The old idiom is to always wear loose-fitting clothes so you can get better circulation, leading to sweat evaporation. However, moisture-wicking technology made of nylon has become a staple in the closets of athletic people. Underarmour and Nike were pioneers of this technology.
Plants Are Your Friend – I don’t imagine the cactus plant on your desk is going to make a ton of difference, but plants absorb moisture in the air and can have a positive effect on the humidity around you.
Don’t Eat Heavy Carbs – Ideally, a salad or fresh fruit will contribute the least to your overheating, but lighter proteins such as chicken or fish are considerably better than the heavier meals like baked lasagna (even though delicious). Save that for the fall… and for your fat pants.
Take Cold Showers – I never understood how people could take cold showers until I started mowing the lawn. Start off with a nice lukewarm temperature, then lower it incrementally so there’s no shock to the system.
Vague Specifics – June 2020
It’s getting harder to predict how the year is going to turn out sales-wise. Sales for May were down a staggering (but predictable) 25% from May 2019, but pending sales going forward are up 19% from the previous year. It would appear that the market is going as the COVID-19 Lockdown is going, and now that new restrictions have been put in place, it’s causing things to slow down again. I think all-in-all we’ll still have a pretty good year, but it all depends on how much the election is going to impact sales and what the state of the virus is going to be like in the fall.
One of my chief frustrations with COVID-19 and the lockdown (besides the obvious economic crash and 100,000 death toll, of course) is that our shindigs have been put on hold. The usual John Angell Real Estate Group spring party was cancelled in April (although it would have been a push given my back surgery in February), and the July 4th party has been called off as well. I hate the idea of it, it could have been done outside, but the risk is just too high and the optics would have been foolish.
I’m glad to get back to the office, even with “social distancing” rules. We all have an inner introvert who loves staying at home, occasionally Zoom chatting (although I imagine only about half the people I see on Zoom are wearing pants), and saving money by not eating lunch out. But I think even the most introverted of us was either starting to go a little crazy from a lack of human interaction or, even worse, becoming accustomed to isolation to the point of enjoying it. I had a good friend once who I lost to bonafide agoraphobia after she started working from home. Her world got smaller and smaller until she couldn’t even walk her dog in public places or go to the grocery store. We all need to be vigilant against infection, but not at the expense of our nature as social animals.