East Dallas – John Angell – Paragon Realtors

Vague Specifics – February 2023

If you look the most recent MLS statistics, the signs are all over the place. Median days on market is still very low comparative to historic averages, but market inventory has doubled and interest rates have certainly stretched home affordability. While I’ve been told we’ll see rates in the upper 5’s this spring and summer, recent economic reports have shown that current rates are not cooling down inflation. It would appear that the “soft landing” we were hoping for will turn into a recession. To those of us who remember the Great Recession, it’s unlikely we’ll see anything like that. Real estate was a if not the primary driver then, now the market slowdown is just a byproduct of more money that has ever been printed in human history being pumped into the US economy.

If there is a positive statistic to the market leveling off, it’s home affordability. Dallas was historically one of the most affordable major metropolitan areas in the United States (probably due in part to our crippling summers and lack of natural topography…). Since the 80’s, however, DFW has worked very hard to present a very diverse economy, and the benefits are being reaped in the form of mass migration to the area. Unfortunately, basic rules of supply and demand have driven up home prices because as the old real estate idiom says, “They ain’t making any more dirt.”.

A housing index of 100 means the median income home can afford the median-priced home. We’re hovering slightly below that right now, and it’s not being helped by the slow return to normal homebuilding rates. It’s likely going to drop a bit over the next few months as it does the first half of every year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it eclipses 100 in the winter, which is when many are predicting the recession is going to arrive. Hopefully I’m wrong.

MLS Statistics – January 2023

Getting Your Lawn Ready for Spring

The jury is out on what our lawns are going to look like following a particularly hot and brutal summer, followed by several deep winter freezes. As a man obsessed with his St. Augustine, it may be a rebuilding year.

1) Clear All Debris – Now that the roots (or what remains of them) no longer need insulation from the cold, they need as much ventilation and exposure to sunlight as possible. Some lawns form a thick thatch over the soil that especially needs to be raked or removed by a de-thatcher. Also, airflow helps prevent disease and rot.

2) Aerate – I have to admit I’ve never done this, but given the density of our North Texas soil, it only makes sense that compacted areas are hard for grass to take root. They sell those funny aerating shoes on Amazon, or if you value your time (and dignity) consider buying or renting a power aerator.

3) Seek & Destroy Crabgrass – Crabgrass is a scourge to any healthy lawn and can choke out the grass you want. Applying a pre-emergent in very early March is advisable.

4) Check Your Sprinkler System – It was a brutal summer (in case you somehow forgot) and the odds are you saw dead spots on your lawn. Have you planted any new landscaping plants that may be blocking your sprinkler heads? Run all zones and make sure you’re getting maximum coverage.

5) Hold off on Fertilizing – North Texas god king of herbology Neil Sperry recommends waiting until April 15th to get the most out of fertilizing your lawn. This doesn’t mean hold off on pre-emergent, weeds sprout early and often.

Vague Specifics – January 2023

The steroid-infused, powerlifting champion market of 2020-2022 is over and into the new market of 2023 we go. Higher interest rates, a seasonal cooldown and looming recession have put the brakes on the hottest real estate market in DFW history. Let me reiterate that while I’ll miss the short contract periods and sellers giddly as schoolgirls by the offers they receive, it was wholly necessary. It’s going to take a long time for wages to catch up with prices.

What does that mean for you’re considering selling? A return to reality, mostly. It means you’ll have to pay attention to the market analysis I provide you, that the hardest part of my job isn’t going to be preparing the spreadsheet to facilitate choosing between 20 offers, and darn it means negotiating. The below graph is fascinating.

Does this mean the days of wheeling-and-dealing are back? In some instances yes, but it also means sellers need to be realistic about asking prices and not price speculatively. While it’s amazing we’ve touched 2012 levels of sales-price-to-original-list-price, it doesn’t mean every house you see will be willing to drop their price to 92% of list. Also, if you bought your house in mid-2022, especially if you went over list price and issued an appraisal waiver, you’ll likely need to stay put for a few years. The rule of thumb used to be you could sell your house and make a decent profit if you lived in it for 3-5 years, it appears to be the rule of thumb yet again.

All this said, it is the best time in years to buy. Rates are going to drop at some point and another mini-sellers run will begin. You have more inventory than you have had in several years from which to choose, and there are creative ways to buy down interest rates or just wait for them to drop and then refinance.

MLS Statistics – December 2022

Architectural Corner – Prairie Style

Chances are you’re going to be surprised by this. Originating in Chicago in the early 1900’s, Prairie style architecture placed a great emphasis on craftsmanship, simplicity and access to nature. it’s most celebrated architect was Frank Lloyd Wright.

Prairie architecture combined various ideals of the Arts & Crafts movement, and featured sprawling footprints with strong geometry, brick or stucco exteriors, open and asymmetric floorplans, and connected indoor and outdoor spaces. Sprawling but rarely tall (Wright referred to the style as “Married to the ground”), Prairie homes emphasized the horizontal and minimized the vertical. In fact most vertical features such as downspouts are routinely cut out.

Many of the bolder, less-appalling newer construction homes can be defined as Prairie.

Vague Specifics – October 2022

I saved writing this towards the end of the month because I had a few economic summits to attend before my monthly prognostication.

The dreaded R-word is on everyone’s minds. The economy is being stimied by spiraling interest rates. Around the corner is job losses and possibly a further stock market correction. Although we have a period of relative discomfort ahead, this will be nothing like 2009. The government printed trillions of dollars and paid people to stay at home, causing too much money chasing too few goods. Sprinkle on that terrible monetary policy over the last few years, and we have the worst inflation in 40 years. Once inflation is tamped down, interest rates will settle again, probably 4.5-5.5% by this time next year.

Despite interest rates being so high, it is now a fantastic time to buy a home. “But John, you wise yet immature savant,” I hear you say, “how is it a good time to buy with interest rates where they are?”. First of all, dear reader, interest rates will go down and we’ll see another refi boom. Secondly, the market is no longer seeing multiple offers going 10% over list price. Sellers are willing to negotiate. If you find that perfect house, now is the time to get it before rates drop and the frenzy begins again. Also, look for builders to cut great deals through the rest of the year.

As I’ve said before, do not look for a “market adjustment”. More people moved to Dallas this year than any other metropolitan area, and balancing the number of buyers with active listings is going to take years. I’m not saying prices are where they were in June, but we’re still 10% up than we were in January.

Another reminder the 6th Annual John Angell Real Estate Group Pumpkin Carving Competition is this month. Email me a pic of your pumpkin. It will be judged on the total quality of the image (background, lighting, angle, creativity and intricacy of the pumpking carving). Judging takes place on Halloween night Monday, October 31st at 6pm.

Architectural Corner – The American Craftsman

Inspired by the British Arts & Crafts movement and beginning in the later years of the 1800’s, American Craftsman represented a departure from the ornamentation of the Victorian Style and urban grit of the Industrial Revolution, embracing a return to countryside simplicity. It began in Southern California and spread from 1900-1929 throughout the United States, most common in California and the midwest.

Craftsman homes feature low-pitched, gabled roofs, with overhanging eaves and exposed rafters, signature front porches and tapered columns, large bay windows, and stone or stucco accents. They are almost always painted wood siding, typically with cedar shaker shingles.

Not only is the craftsman style still extremely popular with smaller-sized new construction today, thanks to their quality build they are a common target for renovators, although their small size often warrants signficant additions.

Giving Your Air Conditioner a Helping Hand

2022 has been the spiciest summer in a decade, and with it comes talk of rollling blackouts and heat advisories. While the modern air conditioner is virtual a miracle (placing its inventor, Willis Carrier, just below the Archangel Michael in the pecking order of saints), in extreme temperatures they need all the help they can get. Here are a few tips to help give your air conditioner a little help:

1) KEEP YOUR SYSTEM MAINTAINED – Hands-down the most important thing you can do. Even if it’s working perfectly, have your technician come out every spring and fall. In the spring they will check your coolant levels, make sure your coils are clean, and give it a full physical.

2) MAINTAIN A CLEAN FILTER – Replace your filter every 1-2 months. Put it in your calendar, write it on the refrigerator or carve it on the back of your hand. A dirty filter not only decreases your efficiency, it heavily burdens the system and can spell an early demise. Also, agents like me use filters as a barometer for how a seller has generally kept a home.

3) CHECK FOR LEAKS – Windows, attic access, and exterior doors should be closed as tightly as possible. Also, in the spring and fall check your ductwork for leaks. Rats and squirels love eating through it.

4) SHADE AND KEEP YOUR CONDENSOR CLEAR – Keeping your condensor out of direct sunlight will help it’s efficiency, but make sure nothing is within 2 feet of the unit. Circulation and shade will make sure the unit is doing it’s job.

5) DON’T CRANK UP THE THERMOSTAT WHILE YOU’RE GONE – While keeping the temperature at 80 while you’re at work may seem like a good idea, in reality it takes more time and energy to cool your house down than it would to simply maintain a constant temperature.

6) ADD INSULATION – You can never have too much in your attic. Insulation is messy, but it’s relatively cheap to have blown into your attic.

7) KEEP DUCTS OPEN – Not only does it not improve efficiency, a closed duct puts stress on your system.