John Angell Real Estate – John Angell

Vague Specifics – February 2023

If you look the most recent MLS statistics, the signs are all over the place. Median days on market is still very low comparative to historic averages, but market inventory has doubled and interest rates have certainly stretched home affordability. While I’ve been told we’ll see rates in the upper 5’s this spring and summer, recent economic reports have shown that current rates are not cooling down inflation. It would appear that the “soft landing” we were hoping for will turn into a recession. To those of us who remember the Great Recession, it’s unlikely we’ll see anything like that. Real estate was a if not the primary driver then, now the market slowdown is just a byproduct of more money that has ever been printed in human history being pumped into the US economy.

If there is a positive statistic to the market leveling off, it’s home affordability. Dallas was historically one of the most affordable major metropolitan areas in the United States (probably due in part to our crippling summers and lack of natural topography…). Since the 80’s, however, DFW has worked very hard to present a very diverse economy, and the benefits are being reaped in the form of mass migration to the area. Unfortunately, basic rules of supply and demand have driven up home prices because as the old real estate idiom says, “They ain’t making any more dirt.”.

A housing index of 100 means the median income home can afford the median-priced home. We’re hovering slightly below that right now, and it’s not being helped by the slow return to normal homebuilding rates. It’s likely going to drop a bit over the next few months as it does the first half of every year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it eclipses 100 in the winter, which is when many are predicting the recession is going to arrive. Hopefully I’m wrong.

MLS Statistics – January 2023

Getting Your Lawn Ready for Spring

The jury is out on what our lawns are going to look like following a particularly hot and brutal summer, followed by several deep winter freezes. As a man obsessed with his St. Augustine, it may be a rebuilding year.

1) Clear All Debris – Now that the roots (or what remains of them) no longer need insulation from the cold, they need as much ventilation and exposure to sunlight as possible. Some lawns form a thick thatch over the soil that especially needs to be raked or removed by a de-thatcher. Also, airflow helps prevent disease and rot.

2) Aerate – I have to admit I’ve never done this, but given the density of our North Texas soil, it only makes sense that compacted areas are hard for grass to take root. They sell those funny aerating shoes on Amazon, or if you value your time (and dignity) consider buying or renting a power aerator.

3) Seek & Destroy Crabgrass – Crabgrass is a scourge to any healthy lawn and can choke out the grass you want. Applying a pre-emergent in very early March is advisable.

4) Check Your Sprinkler System – It was a brutal summer (in case you somehow forgot) and the odds are you saw dead spots on your lawn. Have you planted any new landscaping plants that may be blocking your sprinkler heads? Run all zones and make sure you’re getting maximum coverage.

5) Hold off on Fertilizing – North Texas god king of herbology Neil Sperry recommends waiting until April 15th to get the most out of fertilizing your lawn. This doesn’t mean hold off on pre-emergent, weeds sprout early and often.

Vague Specifics – January 2023

The steroid-infused, powerlifting champion market of 2020-2022 is over and into the new market of 2023 we go. Higher interest rates, a seasonal cooldown and looming recession have put the brakes on the hottest real estate market in DFW history. Let me reiterate that while I’ll miss the short contract periods and sellers giddly as schoolgirls by the offers they receive, it was wholly necessary. It’s going to take a long time for wages to catch up with prices.

What does that mean for you’re considering selling? A return to reality, mostly. It means you’ll have to pay attention to the market analysis I provide you, that the hardest part of my job isn’t going to be preparing the spreadsheet to facilitate choosing between 20 offers, and darn it means negotiating. The below graph is fascinating.

Does this mean the days of wheeling-and-dealing are back? In some instances yes, but it also means sellers need to be realistic about asking prices and not price speculatively. While it’s amazing we’ve touched 2012 levels of sales-price-to-original-list-price, it doesn’t mean every house you see will be willing to drop their price to 92% of list. Also, if you bought your house in mid-2022, especially if you went over list price and issued an appraisal waiver, you’ll likely need to stay put for a few years. The rule of thumb used to be you could sell your house and make a decent profit if you lived in it for 3-5 years, it appears to be the rule of thumb yet again.

All this said, it is the best time in years to buy. Rates are going to drop at some point and another mini-sellers run will begin. You have more inventory than you have had in several years from which to choose, and there are creative ways to buy down interest rates or just wait for them to drop and then refinance.

Architectural Corner – Prairie Style

Chances are you’re going to be surprised by this. Originating in Chicago in the early 1900’s, Prairie style architecture placed a great emphasis on craftsmanship, simplicity and access to nature. it’s most celebrated architect was Frank Lloyd Wright.

Prairie architecture combined various ideals of the Arts & Crafts movement, and featured sprawling footprints with strong geometry, brick or stucco exteriors, open and asymmetric floorplans, and connected indoor and outdoor spaces. Sprawling but rarely tall (Wright referred to the style as “Married to the ground”), Prairie homes emphasized the horizontal and minimized the vertical. In fact most vertical features such as downspouts are routinely cut out.

Many of the bolder, less-appalling newer construction homes can be defined as Prairie.

Developing Healthy Eating Habits

The overwhelming majority of New Years Resolutions involves living healthier lifestyles. While the 800lb gorilla in the room is weight loss, there are some who don’t need to drop pounds but simply need to eat healthy for longevity and quality of life. Here are a few ideas from someone who is in no way an expert:

1) Eat Vegetables & Eat Them First – There’s the old saying, “don’t fill up on bread”. If you’re going to stuff yourself, do so with dark green, red or orange vegetables and top off with your protein and carbohydrates (in that order). Don’t neglect very high-fiber products, especially insoluble fiber. They help immensely with so-called intestinal mobility.

2) Drink More Water – We hear this all the time from practically everyone and it still can’t be said enough. According to people with lots of abbreviations behind their names, we should take in 15.5 cups (3.7 liters) of water a day. Also, remember that if your body gets to the point where you feel thirsty, it means you’re already suffering the effects of dehydration. The goal is to never feel parched.

3) Experiment with Snacks – Thanks to the interwebs, we have more information at our fingertips than ever, and people share clever and delicious recipes all the time. From homemade beef jerky to almond butter energy bars, experimenting with health(ish) snacks has really helped me.

4) Keep a Meal Journal – I cannot express how effective this is. It takes time and can be tedious, but documenting what you eat is life changing. Every time I have done this I have both eaten better and lost weight… then I stopped and gained the weight back. You can get fancy using a meal app like Noom, MyFitnessPal, even FitBit’s proprietary app, or just write it down.

5) Avoid Alcohol as Much as Possible – I say “as much as possible” because if you’re in a industry like, say, real estate, it’s a moral imperative at least in small doses.

Vague Specifics – December 2022

On December 15th, the Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates another .5%. While that is less than the .75% intervals it has been employing to combat inflation these last few months, it puts interest rates at their highest in 15 years (4.25%-4.5%). While mortgage interest rates will likely spike a bit in the coming weeks, they will settle again, but the Fed is not expected to lower rates until 2024 at the earliest.

Despite the strong possiblity of a recession in 2023, the DFW market will likely resemble the markets of 2018 and 2019, according to trusted economists. While they were hardly banner years, they were hardly bad years. Both enjoyed healthy price appreciation and listing inventory, although I have a feeling property values will appreciate modestly the next couple of years given what’s happened to the housing affordability index. It’s hovered a bit over the last 4 months, but the median income household can no longer afford the median-priced house in the metroplex. We’re still nowhere close to places like New York, Los Angeles and Miami, but a healthy housing market still provides access to the average homebuyer.

For our annual trip Kacie, my mom, my aunt and I were able to get away for a week in Big Sky, Montana. Like I’ve said sarcastically, don’t go there. It’s terrible. We’ll just retire there so you don’t have to. In all seriousness, its a magical place, but like so many other beautiful areas it’s been discovered by costal migrants who have just sold their shanties for $3m and throw cash at houses like Monopoly money.

Merrry Christmas!!!

MLS Statistics – November 2022

Storing Holiday Decorations

Unless you’re a weirdo like my wife, there’s nothing fun about cleaning, organizing, and storing decorations, but hastily stored Christmas decorations can make next year’s decorating a full-fledged nightmare. Growing up, my mom used rolled up newspaper to wrap Christmas lights around, and it was always fun reading articles from the late 70’s as I rewound the them. Here are a few tips I wish I knew back then:

1) Be Careful Storing Christmas Wreaths – Any container you use must be able to preserve it’s shape and prevent warping.

2) Label Boxes – Mystery boxes can be fun to open, but when you’re looking for a specific light, bulb, or decorating item, it can be extremely frustrating.

3) Wrapping Up Lights – Do away with the tangled mess of years-past by organizing your Christmas lights before packing. As I mentioned before, a rolled up newspaper does a great job. Make sure to dispose of any lights that may have been damaged or are not working properly. Don’t be afraid to let go!

4) Storing Christmas Candles – Wrap candles in old, preferably washed socks to prevent scratching. Place them in a box standing vertically, and make sure to pack them snugly with newspapers or bubble wrap to prevent them from breaking.

5) Take Pictures Beforehand – If you’re fond of your decorating scheme, make sure to photo document it before putting everything into storage. It’s amazing how quickly your memory can fade over 11 months.

6) Storing the Christmas Tree – Using the original box may seem like a practical idea, but over time and use the cardboard begins to deteriorate. There are many different kinds of boxes, specifically designed for Christmas trees, that you can buy once the original box starts to wear out.

Architectural Corner – Cape Cod

A quintissentially American style, Cape Cod architecture dates back to 17th century English colonists, who altered existing styles to suit the climate of New England. Boxy and low-slung, they were designed to weather the bitter New England winters.

Popular between 1690 and 1850 and, thanks to the Great Depression, revived from 1920 to 1960, Cape Cod architecture has enjoyed an enduring popularity. Characterized by a basic rectangular shape, low ceilings to minimize heatable cubic footage, a central brick chimney, shutter-clad dormer windows and a centered front door, they were wrapped in wood siding with an oak or cedar chake roof, framed and floored with oak or pine. Almost always painted white, they enjoy a variety of accent paints along the shuters, doors and fascia boarding.