Inflation numbers came out higher than expected, and while the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates next month, look for mortgage rates to be affected. As of my writing this they’ve already bumped back up to 7% for a 30-year fixed rate. It’s still funny Adjustable Rate Mortgages are higher than fixed, an effect of an inverted yield curve.
Inventory continues to climb, up 10% from this time last year, but average days on market is actually down 2%. At this point, interest rates were around 6.5% compared to 7% now. When rates drop below 5%, and they will someday (probably 2026), the market is going to catch fire again. There are too many people moving to Dallas following the incredible job growth we’re seeing.
I had a chance to visit with my childhood best friend, who lives just outside of Tyler in a golf course community. He and his wife bought the lot years ago and tried to sell it in 2017 but were unable to find anyone interested. Fortunately they were able to hold onto it and built their dream home on 3 acres, the value on it has gone up exponentially. It makes me think about how much of life is “right time, right place”. I like to tell people I timed the market perfectly when we bought our house in 2010 for next to nothing, but in reality Kacie and I had just gotten married a few months prior and one morning she essentially told me we were going to be moving out of my one-bedroom condo or she was was going to do it alone. I like to think she was exaggerating, but nothing tests a relationship like crammed spaces. Point being the market just happened to be bottomed out at the time.
Speaking of small towns, the mass exodus from Dallas to the surrounding rural areas has definitely calmed down. It never ceases to amaze me how people thought they would never have to go back to the office again. I would consider working from home but I know myself, there are too many distractions between my wife, cats, the TV, chores etc.
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