real estate – Page 12 – John Angell

Vague Specifics – July 2020

What a wacky year it’s been (insert your favorite expletive for “wacky” if you like). Despite a non-existent April-May, aggregate sales in 2020 trails 2019 by only 2% for single-family homes, and 10% for condos and townhomes. If you read this newsletter, and I’m sure it’s the primary focus of your life – a veritable north star the dark night of COVID – you’ll know just how terrible sales were for two of what should have been top sales months. Again, I have no idea how the year is going to turn out, there are conflicting forces at play. Working against a strong 2020 are COVID and it’s a presidential election year. Working for the market are tens of thousands of people flooding into D/FW in search of jobs, prosperity and a 110 degree heat index.

Inventory is still critically low in the DFW area. Builders around the periphery simply can’t put up enough product to keep up with demand. It’s amazing that parts of the Metroplex that were once rightfully considered the middle-of-nowhere are now bustling population microcosms. I mean, there isn’t a tree over 7′ tall in these areas, but by the year 2070, they will be MAJESTIC.

I try to keep my comments as macro as possible, but for the most part, the majority of my work is in East Dallas and Lake Highlands, both of which have been particularly resurgent in the last couple of months. Sales volume has risen 38% and 62%, respectively. What areas are suffering? Park Cities and Oak Lawn. Luxury homes over $1,000,000 – particularly $2,000,000 – are simply not selling these days. And the condos and townhomes that compose the majority of Oak Lawn are also lagging.

Vague Specifics – June 2020

It’s getting harder to predict how the year is going to turn out sales-wise. Sales for May were down a staggering (but predictable) 25% from May 2019, but pending sales going forward are up 19% from the previous year. It would appear that the market is going as the COVID-19 Lockdown is going, and now that new restrictions have been put in place, it’s causing things to slow down again. I think all-in-all we’ll still have a pretty good year, but it all depends on how much the election is going to impact sales and what the state of the virus is going to be like in the fall.

One of my chief frustrations with COVID-19 and the lockdown (besides the obvious economic crash and 100,000 death toll, of course) is that our shindigs have been put on hold. The usual John Angell Real Estate Group spring party was cancelled in April (although it would have been a push given my back surgery in February), and the July 4th party has been called off as well. I hate the idea of it, it could have been done outside, but the risk is just too high and the optics would have been foolish.

I’m glad to get back to the office, even with “social distancing” rules. We all have an inner introvert who loves staying at home, occasionally Zoom chatting (although I imagine only about half the people I see on Zoom are wearing pants), and saving money by not eating lunch out. But I think even the most introverted of us was either starting to go a little crazy from a lack of human interaction or, even worse, becoming accustomed to isolation to the point of enjoying it. I had a good friend once who I lost to bonafide agoraphobia after she started working from home. Her world got smaller and smaller until she couldn’t even walk her dog in public places or go to the grocery store. We all need to be vigilant against infection, but not at the expense of our nature as social animals.

Avoiding Mosquito Bites – June 2020

“There’s nothing more dangerous than a wounded mosquito.” – Roy, Monty Python’s Flying Circus

Just like hot weather, mosquitoes are a fact of life in Dallas. They proliferate in spring moisture and, thankfully, by the end of summer are mostly gone. Until then, here are a few tips to keep the bites at bay.

1) Wear Light, Loose-Fitting Clothes – Mosquitos love warm bodies, and can sense them from a distance. Wearing light, loose-fitting clothes that stay away from the skin not only block their sight of you, but lessen the chance of their proboscis (pointy snout) from going into your skin.

2) Use Repellants – Off! and Cutter do a great job, but mosquitoes despise catnip, society garlic, and lavender as well. Keeping any of these plants in abundance around your outdoor living space will deter them.

3) Certain Foods Can Help (or Hinder!) – What we eat affects the scents that we put off that animals can detect. Any form of raw garlic and onions, apple cider vinegar, lemongrass, chili peppers, beans, lemons and tomatoes all cause your natural scent to drive them off. Also, it’s been shown that vitamin B-1 may do the job as well. Things to avoid? Alcohol, salty or sugary foods all make you smell more delicious to mosquitos.

4) Eliminate Standing Water – Mosquito larvae require stagnant water to grow, and a young mosquito is a voracious mosquito. Dump any vessel with standing water in it you can find, whether it be a wheelbarrow, flower pot, whatever.

5) Don’t Breathe – Mosquitos are able to see carbon dioxide as it is exhaled by mammals, and are naturally attracted to it. Next time you see mosquitos buzzing on the other side of a screen door, exhale through the screen and watch them go crazy. Obviously you can’t opt to not breathe, but exhaling as infrequently as possible when in areas rife with mosquitos.

Vague Specifics – May 2020

I’m not super math-oriented by nature, but I really lean on MLS statistics. April’s report is going to be very telling about how COVID-19 affected the real estate market. I have to say it wasn’t as bad as I thought in some ways, and worse in others, but from a homeowner’s standpoint there’s definitely a silver lining. Sales from April 2019 for single family homes have diminished 16% and 34% for condos and townhomes. What that tells me is condo and townhome buyers are considerably more vulnerable to the shutdown than single-family buyers, and there may be more whimsical buyers that don’t necessarily have to buy.

“But John, you roguishly handsome, yet sophisticated man-about-town”, I hear you ask, “is this this the beginning of a market correction?”. Unfortunately for the average buyer, it is probably not. While sales are down considerably, listing inventory is down even more. The Wall Street Journal even wrote an article on the diminished supply keeping prices moving upward, albeit at a slower pace. Where we may see a correction is in the mid-level new construction around the periphery of the Metroplex, where builders are anxious to finish out inventory. But inside the loop I just don’t see prices below $1 million being a thing. Make no mistake, it is a buyer’s market over $2 million, and far more friendly for them from $1-2 million, but the average homebuyer isn’t going to get to enjoy much more than normal besides record low interest rates.

I feel like a broken record saying this, but I do sincerely mean it, please feel free to reach out to me with any questions. This has been a black swan event, and I can’t predict the future (yet), but I’m doing my best to keep my finger on the pulse of all local markets. I’m just glad there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, and businesses are starting to open back up.

Vague Specifics – April 2020

May this newsletter find you well.

It’s funny that I almost alway get asked, “How’s the real estate market?” when I’m having a casual conversation with people. In the last month, I can tell they’re paying a little more attention to my answer than normal. Homes are still selling, but obviously not at the breakneck pace we were expecting this spring. As I said last month, Realtors are considered essential services along with plumbers, inspectors, appraisers, and other real estate professionals. We are resided to wear masks while we show, and to offer masks to our clients. Also, we’re not allowed to show open houses, but virtual tours and matterport technology will be taking their place to what extent they can.

Looking at page 2 statistics, the March market was unaffected by the shutdown because closings that happened in March went already under contract before a lot of people were taking Covid-19 seriously. Pending sales for single-family homes were only down 10% from March 2019, but pending condo/townhome sales are down 32%. From a Realtor’s perspective, there are going to be fewer opportunities moving forward, but people who are in the market right now are serious buyers and sellers. I completely understand why many are delaying their move. There are a lot of buyers out there who have been furlowed, seen their wages reduced or just don’t feel comfortable about their finances. Conversely, there are a lot of seller who don’t want strangers in their properties, especially if the sellers have at-risk loved ones.

I have to say I’m curious about what this is going to do to sales over the next 12 months. It looks like the lockdown is going to continue into May, which is disturbing from an economic standpoint. We obviously have to “flatten the curve”, but we also have to consider more than half of our population lives paycheck-to-paycheck. And they’re running out of money.

The Tipi – April 2020

The tipi was a essentially mobile tent, and was critical to the migratory nature of Native Americans. It was more or less a tripod wrapped in animal skins, although the Blackfoot Indians used 4 poles instead of 3.

Typically 12-25 feet tall, these structures featured a smoke flap at the top where the poles converged, and a fire pit in the center for cooking and heating. They could be easily collapsed for fast transportation (if dragging is considered fast). The tipi did a great job keeping occupants cool in the summer and warm in the winter, and there was a surprising amount of variety in terms of features.

Most tipis were not decorated, the few exceptions were painted on the outside, depicting historical battles, hunting expeditions, and visions.

Vague Specifics – March 2020

(Note: this is the 5th time I’ve revised this in the last 2 weeks. Our situation continues to change…) Last fall, we were given a 50% chance of seeing a short, 1-2 quarter period of economic contraction (consecutive quarters fitting the qualifications of a recession). Economists who suggested this didn’t know what would cause it, they just knew we were way overdue for some national/global event that would ultimately lead to people not engaging in normal commerce. I used to tell prospects that if the Dallas real estate market “adjusted”, then we’d have a lot more to worry about than the Dallas real estate market. I hate being right sometimes.

The next couple of months are going to be rough for real estate statistics. As of March 31st, real estate agents are not on the list of essential services, meaning we’re not supposed to show houses. There’s a good chance that will be lifted, because despite the necessity to quarantine, it turns out people still need to find somewhere to live, especially if their rent is expiring. All other real estate services (title companies, inspectors, appraisers, contractors) are allowed to function under social distancing guidelines.

The last 5 months were pretty terrific for the market, but that will be coming to an end soon. Look for March and April to be as slow as we’ve ever seen. In fact, I’m going to be very reluctant to ever look at NTREIS statistics for this time. People are still buying and selling, there’s no doubt about that, and virtual tours are going really rising to prominence all-of-a-sudden.

America’s financial markets are still very solid, but the longer we go on lock down, the more that’s going to be curbed. It’s a black swan event we’re experiencing, and I firmly believe we’ll recover from this far faster than the Great Recession, but the longer we stay shut down, the weaker the recovery, so let’s hope we get more solid data and are able to move from a China-style lockdown to a Japan-style social distancing and quarantining.

We’re going to be okay, everyone. Stay safe.