DFW MLS – John Angell – Paragon Realtors

Vague Specifics – February 2023

If you look the most recent MLS statistics, the signs are all over the place. Median days on market is still very low comparative to historic averages, but market inventory has doubled and interest rates have certainly stretched home affordability. While I’ve been told we’ll see rates in the upper 5’s this spring and summer, recent economic reports have shown that current rates are not cooling down inflation. It would appear that the “soft landing” we were hoping for will turn into a recession. To those of us who remember the Great Recession, it’s unlikely we’ll see anything like that. Real estate was a if not the primary driver then, now the market slowdown is just a byproduct of more money that has ever been printed in human history being pumped into the US economy.

If there is a positive statistic to the market leveling off, it’s home affordability. Dallas was historically one of the most affordable major metropolitan areas in the United States (probably due in part to our crippling summers and lack of natural topography…). Since the 80’s, however, DFW has worked very hard to present a very diverse economy, and the benefits are being reaped in the form of mass migration to the area. Unfortunately, basic rules of supply and demand have driven up home prices because as the old real estate idiom says, “They ain’t making any more dirt.”.

A housing index of 100 means the median income home can afford the median-priced home. We’re hovering slightly below that right now, and it’s not being helped by the slow return to normal homebuilding rates. It’s likely going to drop a bit over the next few months as it does the first half of every year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it eclipses 100 in the winter, which is when many are predicting the recession is going to arrive. Hopefully I’m wrong.

MLS Statistics – January 2023

Architectural Corner – Log Cabin

Tracing it’s roots back to the Bronze Age (roughly 3,500 BC) northern Europe, the log cabin is the epitome of function and the use of local materials. As early as 1640 they were recorded as having existed in North America. Seven US Presidents were actually born in log cabins, the most celebrated of whom was Abraham Lincoln.

Constructed of logs laid horizontally, usually with notches at the end to facilitate interlocking and minimize space in between, log cabins relied heavily on the site upon which they were built. Both drainage and sunlight were critical to their longevity. Styles, sizes and layouts varied greatly over the years and regions. Roofs were either rafter or purlin (horizontal logs notched to wall logs). Front porches were also very important to their design, especially for the hot summer months.

Vague Specifics – January 2023

The steroid-infused, powerlifting champion market of 2020-2022 is over and into the new market of 2023 we go. Higher interest rates, a seasonal cooldown and looming recession have put the brakes on the hottest real estate market in DFW history. Let me reiterate that while I’ll miss the short contract periods and sellers giddly as schoolgirls by the offers they receive, it was wholly necessary. It’s going to take a long time for wages to catch up with prices.

What does that mean for you’re considering selling? A return to reality, mostly. It means you’ll have to pay attention to the market analysis I provide you, that the hardest part of my job isn’t going to be preparing the spreadsheet to facilitate choosing between 20 offers, and darn it means negotiating. The below graph is fascinating.

Does this mean the days of wheeling-and-dealing are back? In some instances yes, but it also means sellers need to be realistic about asking prices and not price speculatively. While it’s amazing we’ve touched 2012 levels of sales-price-to-original-list-price, it doesn’t mean every house you see will be willing to drop their price to 92% of list. Also, if you bought your house in mid-2022, especially if you went over list price and issued an appraisal waiver, you’ll likely need to stay put for a few years. The rule of thumb used to be you could sell your house and make a decent profit if you lived in it for 3-5 years, it appears to be the rule of thumb yet again.

All this said, it is the best time in years to buy. Rates are going to drop at some point and another mini-sellers run will begin. You have more inventory than you have had in several years from which to choose, and there are creative ways to buy down interest rates or just wait for them to drop and then refinance.

MLS Statistics – December 2022

Architectural Corner – Prairie Style

Chances are you’re going to be surprised by this. Originating in Chicago in the early 1900’s, Prairie style architecture placed a great emphasis on craftsmanship, simplicity and access to nature. it’s most celebrated architect was Frank Lloyd Wright.

Prairie architecture combined various ideals of the Arts & Crafts movement, and featured sprawling footprints with strong geometry, brick or stucco exteriors, open and asymmetric floorplans, and connected indoor and outdoor spaces. Sprawling but rarely tall (Wright referred to the style as “Married to the ground”), Prairie homes emphasized the horizontal and minimized the vertical. In fact most vertical features such as downspouts are routinely cut out.

Many of the bolder, less-appalling newer construction homes can be defined as Prairie.

MLS Statistics – November 2022

August 2022 MLS Statistics

Getting Your Lawn Ready for Fall

This may be jumping the gun a little, but it usually takes me a month or so to I know, I’m obsessed with lawn care. Please bear with me.

Before 2021, I always believed here in Texas we didn’t have to worry quite so much about preparing our lawns for winter. Now I realize we need to fortify them as much almost as much as the northern states, because we’re just one massive freeze away from years of progress being destroyed.

1) Continue Usual Maintenance – Don’t stop mowing and weeding, and keep raking leaves up through the fall. It will allow the waning sunlight to reach the grass, and there will be less leaf to turn brown during the winter. And for God’s sake, don’t stop watering, even in the winter.

2) Ready the Pre-Emergent Herbicide – The early fall (now) is the perfect time to apply an herbicide to stop the spread of weeds and dandelions. Recent EPA regulations have outlawed weed killers that kill man stubborn weeds in North Texas (don’t get me started on why…). A preemergent herbicide will sterilize the weeds so they won’t grow back in the spring… provided we have a nice, cold winter.

3) Additional Fertilizing – When mid-late October approaches, it’ll be a good time to apply additional high-nitrogen lawn fertilizer to your lawn. It’s about to experience what could be an extended period of dormancy, but you need to make sure the roots are strong and run deep. I use Scott’s Bonus-S at the advice of my local Home Depot guru, but I can’t say that’s the best.

4) Know What’s Best for Your Lawn – Without going into details, there are pre-emergents and fertilizers that work great for bermuda grass, but kill St. Augustine on contact, and conversely. Also be mindful of the forecast. Some treatments do not work properly above certain temperatures, and if there is a heavy rain in the forecast it’s pointless to sprinkle anything on your lawn.

Preparing for the Coming Winter

The summer of 2022 has been brutal, and according to the Farmer’s Almanac we’re in store for a particularly cold winter. We’ll have our standard 3 weeks of beautiful DFW fall weather, followed by rain, wind and cold. Before the oven becomes a freezer put yourself to work outside and prepare.

Paint, Stain & Reseal – This covers a lot of items. The Texas summer is murder on paint, wood, caulk and sealant, especially south-facing surfaces. The winter moisture will exploit 0this, so make sure the house, fence, and decks are painted/restained and the caulked and sealed surfaces and cracks are stripped and re-sealed. This could take days; always handle the sealing/caulking first!

Replace Old Windows – Window seals are the same as all the others. The heat causes them to expand, the cold contract and lose their seals. Broken seals are typically more unsightly than inefficient, but enough of them can mean higher bills.

Clean the Gutters – Can’t be overstated the damage standing water in your gutters can do to your house, and in extreme cases it can cause the gutters to collapse. A ladder and a blower can save you thousands.

Add Insulation – Every 10-15 years your insulation compacts to the point where it needs to be supplemented. There are instances where it just makes sense to drain all the existing insulation and just start over, especially if you have rodents or squirels in the attic.

Service Your Furnace – As important as servicing your air conditioner is to keeping you cold, servicing your furnace keeps you from dying. Gas leaks can kill.

Fireplace Maintenance – It’s hard to imagine a roaring fire while it’s 100 degrees outside, but before you know it you’ll be wanting one. Make sure the dampers function properly, repair damaged masonry or brickwork, and climb on the roof to in-spect your chimney cap if you have one. If you heard birds chirping up ther during the spring, there may be a flamable abaondoned nest in the chimney!