I get it; we all want to time the market. To quote Louis Winthorpe III: Buy low, sell high. Everyone wants to tell friends and neighbors they got in while the getting was good and sold at the top of the market, but is there really a trick to this or is it just luck? Is there a secret to timing the market?

It all boils down to knowing the market and market trends. If you know trends, you stand a better chance. If you don’t, well, there’s always luck.

How Long Do Homes Stay on the Market? – A “buyer’s market” is typically defined as a market where the average house takes more than 6 months to sell (Dallas is fickle and a lot less). In a buyers market prices are down and sellers tend to be more flexible, the opposite is true in a seller’s market.

What Time of Year is It? – There’s always a seasonal dip in the fall and winter for both prices and inventory. Now, many of the homes that are driving average prices down were those that didn’t sell in the summer, almost always because price and condition didn’t match, so don’t assume that a great house can suddenly be bought at a discount in November.

Where Are You Buying? – Geography plays a part in market cycles. The closer you are to population densities, the shorter the seasonal market declines. Now, the Great Urban Exodus of 2020-2022 saw the exact opposite happen, but now that people are going back to their offices, that trend is lessening.

What is Everyone Else Doing? – This is anecdotal but valid. Does everyone say, “Don’t buy a house right now.”? If so, the time to buy may be at least approaching because it takes time for the geniuses in the media (sarcasm) to be bludgeoned with enough data to acknowledge shifts in market trends.

Let’s acknowledge homebuying is subjective. It’s a rare buyer who only sees a property as solely an investment; not a lot of people choose a property to call home for 5 years just because it’ll appreciate the more than other choices. But again, sometimes you’re just lucky. My wife and I bought in 2010, not because it was the bottom of the market, but because we were recently married and she told me to get her the heck out of my 1 bedroom condo.